Research Article
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Year 2023, , 201 - 226, 17.07.2023

Elif Atasoy Aytış , Elif Soyer , Ali Ertürk

https://doi.org/10.3153/AR23020

Abstract

References

  • Ayaz, S., Aktaş, Ö., Dağlı, S., Aydöner, C., Aytış, E.A., Akça, L. (2013). Pollution loads and surface water quality in the Kızılırmak Basin, Turkey. Desalination and Water Treatment, 51(7-9), 1533-1542. https://doi.org/10.1080/19443994.2012.698814
  • Ayaz, S., Atasoy Aytış, E., Gürsoy Haksevenler, H., Koyunluoğlu Aynur, Ş., Dilaver, M., Erdoğan, N., Karaaslan, Y. (2021). An approach for determining the nutrient sensitive areas: a case study for Gediz River Basin, Turkey. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 193(5), 1-20. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-021-09017-x
  • Ayaz, S., Atasoy Aytış, E., Koyunluoğlu Aynur, Ş., Kıran, B., Beşiktaş, M., Sarıkaya, Ö., Karaaslan, Y. (2022). Simplified methodologies to designate sensitive areas and nitrate vulnerable zones: A case study of Yesilirmak River Basin, Turkey. Environmental Quality Management, 32(1), 483-494. https://doi.org/10.1002/tqem.21833
  • Ayaz, S., Aytis, E., Aynur, S., Haksevenler, B.H., Kiran, B., Dereli, E.M., Dilaver, M., Erdogan, N., Besiktas, M., Kinaci, C. (2017). The methodology of pollution load calculations. Solutions to Water Challenges in MENA Region, Proceedings of the Regional Workshop, Cairo, Egypt, April 25-30, Göttingen, Germany: Cuvillier Verlag.
  • Balooch, M.A. (2009). Hydrological simulation program-Fortran (HSPF) model as a decision support tool for a developing country-A case study from Turkey. [dissertation]: İTÜ.
  • Bayari, C. S., Kazanci, N., Koyuncu, H., Çaǧlar, S. S., Gökçe, D. (1995) Determination of the origin of the waters of Köyceǧiz Lake, Turkey. Journal of Hydrology, 166(1-2), 171-191. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(94)02554-O
  • Buckley, C. and Carney, P. (2013). The potential to reduce the risk of diffuse pollution from agriculture while improving economic performance at farm level. Environmental Science and Policy, 25, 118-126. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2012.10.002
  • Carlson, R.E. (1977). A trophic state index for lakes. Limnology and Oceanography, 22(2), 361-369. https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.1977.22.2.0361
  • Carlson, R.E., Simpson, J. (1996). A coordinator’s guide to volunteer lake monitoring methods. North American Lake Management Society.
  • CORINE Land Cover. Copernicus, Available online: http://land.copernicus.eu/pan-european/corine-land-cover (accessed on 10 May 2022).
  • DEFRA (Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs) (2002). The Government's Strategic Review of diffuse water pollution from agriculture in England: Agriculture and Water: A Diffuse Pollution Review.
  • Ekdal, A. (2008). Water quality modeling of Köyceğiz-Dalyan Lagoon. [dissertation]: İTÜ.
  • Ertürk, A., Ekdal, A., Gürel, M., Karakaya, N., Güzel, Ç., Gönenç, İ.E. (2014). Evaluating the impact of climate change on groundwater resources in a small Mediterranean watershed. Science of the Total Environment, 499, 437-447. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.07.001
  • Ertürk, A. (2002). Hydraulic modeling of Köyceğiz-Dalyan Lagoon system. [master’s thesis]: İTÜ.
  • Görgüner, M., Kavvas, M.L, Ishida, K. (2019). Assessing the impacts of future climate change on the hydroclimatology of the Gediz Basin in Turkey by using dynamically downscaled CMIP5 projections. Science of the Total Environment, 648, 481-499. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.167
  • Gürel, M., Erturk, A., Şeker, D.Z., Tanik, A., Ekdal, A., Avsar, C., Öztürk, İ. (2011). Estimation of monthly diffuse nutrient loads for a watershed in Turkey. Water and Environment Journal, 25(2), 219-229. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-6593.2009.00214.x
  • Gürel, M. (2000). Nutrient dynamics in coastal lagoons: Dalyan Lagoon case study. [dissertation]: İTÜ.
  • Güzel, Ç. (2010). Application of SWAT model in a watershed in Turkey. [master’s thesis]: İTÜ.
  • IPCC (2022). Sixth Assessment Report, Working Group II-Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.
  • Karaca, T. (2020). Determination of some ecological parameters in Dalyan Channels (Köyceğiz-Muğla). [master’s thesis]: Muğla Sıtkı Koçman University.
  • Kazanci, N., Plasa, R.H., Neubert, E., İzbirak, A. (1992). On the limnology of Lake Köycegiz (SW Anatolia). Zoology in the Middle East, 6(1), 109-126. https://doi.org/10.1080/09397140.1992.10637619
  • Keskin, F. (2019). Determination of toxic metal and eutrophication risks in Köyceğiz Lake Dalyan Lagoon system, Turkey. [dissertation]: Muğla Sıtkı Koçman University.
  • Koçak, M., Kubilay, N., Tuğrul, S., Mihalopoulos, N. (2010). Atmospheric nutrient inputs to the northern levantine basin from a long-term observation: sources and comparison with riverine inputs. Biogeosciences, 7(12), 4037-4050. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-7-4037-2010
  • Kress, N., Herut, B. (2001). Spatial and seasonal evolution of dissolved oxygen and nutrients in the Southern Levantine Basin (Eastern Mediterranean Sea): chemical characterization of the water masses and inferences on the N: P ratios. Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers, 48(11), 2347-2372. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0967-0637(01)00022-X
  • Krom, M.D., Kress, N., Brenner, S., Gordon, L.I. (1991). Phosphorus limitation of primary productivity in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. Limnology and Oceanography, 36(3), 424-432. https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.1991.36.3.0424
  • Krom, M.D., Woodward, E.M. S., Herut, B., Kress, N., Carbo, P., Mantoura, R.F.C., Zodiatis, G. (2005). Nutrient cycling in the south east Levantine basin of the eastern Mediterranean: Results from a phosphorus starved system. Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography, 52(22-23), 2879-2896. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2005.08.009
  • Lazzari, P., Solidoro, C., Salon, S., Bolzon, G. (2016). Spatial variability of phosphate and nitrate in the Mediterranean Sea: A modeling approach. Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers, 108,39-52. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr.2015.12.006
  • Millero, F.J., Poisson, A. (1981). International one-atmosphere equation of state of seawater. Deep Sea Research Part A. Oceanographic Research Papers, 28(6), 625-629. https://doi.org/10.1016/0198-0149(81)90122-9
  • MoAF (2021). Implementing Regulation Amending the Regulation on Surface Water Quality, Turkish Official Gazette. 31513. Turkish.
  • MoAF (2018). Fertilizer Recommendation Guideline, Available on: https://www.tarimorman.gov.tr/TAGEM/Belgeler/yayin/TOPRAKSU%20G%C3%9CBRE%20TAVS%C4%B0YE%20%20Verileri.pdf (accessed on 10 May 2022).
  • Mohamed, B., Abdallah, A. M., Alam El-Din, K., Nagy, H., Shaltout, M. (2019). Inter-annual variability and trends of sea level and sea surface temperature in the Mediterranean Sea over the last 25 years. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 176, 3787-3810. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-019-02156-w
  • NAO (National Audit Office) (2010). Environment Agency, Tackling diffuse water pollution in England. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1993.tb01502.x
  • Özgül, N. (2015). Determination of zooplankton fauna of Köyceğiz Lake (Muğla) and their relationship with physico-chemical properties. [dissertation]: Muğla Sıtkı Koçman University.
  • Stefan, H.G., Preud'homme, E.B. (1993). Stream temperature estimation from air temperature. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 29(1), 27-45.
  • Şen, O.L. (2013). A holistic view of climate change and its impacts in Turkey. Istanbul Policy Center, Sabancı University, Stiftung Mercator Initiative, Mercator-IPC Fellowship Project, Istanbul, Turkey.
  • Şen, Z. (2020). Water structures and climate change impact: a review. Water Resources Management, 34(13), 4197-4216. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-020-02665-7
  • Tanık, A., Seker, D.Z., Gürel, M., Adalı, I., Ertürk, A., Ekdal, A. (2005). Results of nutrient emission modeling in a watershed-application of the MONERIS Model. Proceedings of the Management of Residues Emanating from Water and Wastewater Treatment, Johannesburg, South Africa, 9-12 August.
  • Taşeli, B.K. (2017). Influence of channel traffic and Koycegiz Lake on the water quality of Dalyan Channel network. Environmental Engineering & Management Journal (EEMJ), 16(12).
  • TSMS, Turkish State Meteorologic Servise; Köyceğiz Station, air temperature data, 2012-2022. TurkStat (a). Turkish Statistical Institute, Population and demography statistics, Available online: https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/medas/?kn=101&locale=tr (accessed on 10 May 2022).
  • TurkStat (b). Turkish Statistical Institute, Agriculture statistics, Available online: https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/medas/?kn=101&locale=tr (accessed on 10 May 2022).
  • Udias, A., Malagò, A., Pastori, M., Vigiak, O., Reynaud, A., Elorza, F.J., Bouraoui, F. (2016). Identifying efficient nitrate reduction strategies in the Upper Danube. Water, 8(9), 371. https://doi.org/10.3390/w8090371
  • Vollenweider, R.A. (1976). Advances in defining critical loading levels for phosphorus in lake eutrophication. Mem. 1st ital. Idrobiol, 33, 53-58.

Assessing eutrophication vulnerability in Köyceğiz Lake: Climate change and basin developments impact trophic status

Year 2023, , 201 - 226, 17.07.2023

Elif Atasoy Aytış , Elif Soyer , Ali Ertürk

https://doi.org/10.3153/AR23020

Abstract

This study investigated the potential for eutrophication in Köyceğiz Lake, one of Türkiye's most important and sensitive ecosystems. We developed a simple steady-state eutrophication model system using a phosphorus mass balance model for the lake, utilising open-access data from the literature as input. The model was calibrated and validated, with a specific focus on the eutrophic state of Köyceğiz Lake, and it demonstrated good responsiveness to future predictions. Our findings revealed that both the epilimnion (TSI (TP) 56) and hypolimnion (TSI (TP) 70) of Köyceğiz Lake are eutrophic. Considering climate change impacts and developments in the basin, we conducted projections to determine the lake's trophic status between 2035 and 2095. By 2035, a 65% decrease in freshwater inflow and a 4% increase in total TP load will lead to a hypertrophic status, which will persist and gradually worsen to a severe trophic situation by 2095.

Keywords

Climate change Diffuse pollution Eutrophication Köyceğiz Lake Phosphorus

References

  • Ayaz, S., Aktaş, Ö., Dağlı, S., Aydöner, C., Aytış, E.A., Akça, L. (2013). Pollution loads and surface water quality in the Kızılırmak Basin, Turkey. Desalination and Water Treatment, 51(7-9), 1533-1542. https://doi.org/10.1080/19443994.2012.698814
  • Ayaz, S., Atasoy Aytış, E., Gürsoy Haksevenler, H., Koyunluoğlu Aynur, Ş., Dilaver, M., Erdoğan, N., Karaaslan, Y. (2021). An approach for determining the nutrient sensitive areas: a case study for Gediz River Basin, Turkey. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 193(5), 1-20. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-021-09017-x
  • Ayaz, S., Atasoy Aytış, E., Koyunluoğlu Aynur, Ş., Kıran, B., Beşiktaş, M., Sarıkaya, Ö., Karaaslan, Y. (2022). Simplified methodologies to designate sensitive areas and nitrate vulnerable zones: A case study of Yesilirmak River Basin, Turkey. Environmental Quality Management, 32(1), 483-494. https://doi.org/10.1002/tqem.21833
  • Ayaz, S., Aytis, E., Aynur, S., Haksevenler, B.H., Kiran, B., Dereli, E.M., Dilaver, M., Erdogan, N., Besiktas, M., Kinaci, C. (2017). The methodology of pollution load calculations. Solutions to Water Challenges in MENA Region, Proceedings of the Regional Workshop, Cairo, Egypt, April 25-30, Göttingen, Germany: Cuvillier Verlag.
  • Balooch, M.A. (2009). Hydrological simulation program-Fortran (HSPF) model as a decision support tool for a developing country-A case study from Turkey. [dissertation]: İTÜ.
  • Bayari, C. S., Kazanci, N., Koyuncu, H., Çaǧlar, S. S., Gökçe, D. (1995) Determination of the origin of the waters of Köyceǧiz Lake, Turkey. Journal of Hydrology, 166(1-2), 171-191. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(94)02554-O
  • Buckley, C. and Carney, P. (2013). The potential to reduce the risk of diffuse pollution from agriculture while improving economic performance at farm level. Environmental Science and Policy, 25, 118-126. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2012.10.002
  • Carlson, R.E. (1977). A trophic state index for lakes. Limnology and Oceanography, 22(2), 361-369. https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.1977.22.2.0361
  • Carlson, R.E., Simpson, J. (1996). A coordinator’s guide to volunteer lake monitoring methods. North American Lake Management Society.
  • CORINE Land Cover. Copernicus, Available online: http://land.copernicus.eu/pan-european/corine-land-cover (accessed on 10 May 2022).
  • DEFRA (Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs) (2002). The Government's Strategic Review of diffuse water pollution from agriculture in England: Agriculture and Water: A Diffuse Pollution Review.
  • Ekdal, A. (2008). Water quality modeling of Köyceğiz-Dalyan Lagoon. [dissertation]: İTÜ.
  • Ertürk, A., Ekdal, A., Gürel, M., Karakaya, N., Güzel, Ç., Gönenç, İ.E. (2014). Evaluating the impact of climate change on groundwater resources in a small Mediterranean watershed. Science of the Total Environment, 499, 437-447. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.07.001
  • Ertürk, A. (2002). Hydraulic modeling of Köyceğiz-Dalyan Lagoon system. [master’s thesis]: İTÜ.
  • Görgüner, M., Kavvas, M.L, Ishida, K. (2019). Assessing the impacts of future climate change on the hydroclimatology of the Gediz Basin in Turkey by using dynamically downscaled CMIP5 projections. Science of the Total Environment, 648, 481-499. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.167
  • Gürel, M., Erturk, A., Şeker, D.Z., Tanik, A., Ekdal, A., Avsar, C., Öztürk, İ. (2011). Estimation of monthly diffuse nutrient loads for a watershed in Turkey. Water and Environment Journal, 25(2), 219-229. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-6593.2009.00214.x
  • Gürel, M. (2000). Nutrient dynamics in coastal lagoons: Dalyan Lagoon case study. [dissertation]: İTÜ.
  • Güzel, Ç. (2010). Application of SWAT model in a watershed in Turkey. [master’s thesis]: İTÜ.
  • IPCC (2022). Sixth Assessment Report, Working Group II-Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.
  • Karaca, T. (2020). Determination of some ecological parameters in Dalyan Channels (Köyceğiz-Muğla). [master’s thesis]: Muğla Sıtkı Koçman University.
  • Kazanci, N., Plasa, R.H., Neubert, E., İzbirak, A. (1992). On the limnology of Lake Köycegiz (SW Anatolia). Zoology in the Middle East, 6(1), 109-126. https://doi.org/10.1080/09397140.1992.10637619
  • Keskin, F. (2019). Determination of toxic metal and eutrophication risks in Köyceğiz Lake Dalyan Lagoon system, Turkey. [dissertation]: Muğla Sıtkı Koçman University.
  • Koçak, M., Kubilay, N., Tuğrul, S., Mihalopoulos, N. (2010). Atmospheric nutrient inputs to the northern levantine basin from a long-term observation: sources and comparison with riverine inputs. Biogeosciences, 7(12), 4037-4050. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-7-4037-2010
  • Kress, N., Herut, B. (2001). Spatial and seasonal evolution of dissolved oxygen and nutrients in the Southern Levantine Basin (Eastern Mediterranean Sea): chemical characterization of the water masses and inferences on the N: P ratios. Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers, 48(11), 2347-2372. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0967-0637(01)00022-X
  • Krom, M.D., Kress, N., Brenner, S., Gordon, L.I. (1991). Phosphorus limitation of primary productivity in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. Limnology and Oceanography, 36(3), 424-432. https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.1991.36.3.0424
  • Krom, M.D., Woodward, E.M. S., Herut, B., Kress, N., Carbo, P., Mantoura, R.F.C., Zodiatis, G. (2005). Nutrient cycling in the south east Levantine basin of the eastern Mediterranean: Results from a phosphorus starved system. Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography, 52(22-23), 2879-2896. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2005.08.009
  • Lazzari, P., Solidoro, C., Salon, S., Bolzon, G. (2016). Spatial variability of phosphate and nitrate in the Mediterranean Sea: A modeling approach. Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers, 108,39-52. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr.2015.12.006
  • Millero, F.J., Poisson, A. (1981). International one-atmosphere equation of state of seawater. Deep Sea Research Part A. Oceanographic Research Papers, 28(6), 625-629. https://doi.org/10.1016/0198-0149(81)90122-9
  • MoAF (2021). Implementing Regulation Amending the Regulation on Surface Water Quality, Turkish Official Gazette. 31513. Turkish.
  • MoAF (2018). Fertilizer Recommendation Guideline, Available on: https://www.tarimorman.gov.tr/TAGEM/Belgeler/yayin/TOPRAKSU%20G%C3%9CBRE%20TAVS%C4%B0YE%20%20Verileri.pdf (accessed on 10 May 2022).
  • Mohamed, B., Abdallah, A. M., Alam El-Din, K., Nagy, H., Shaltout, M. (2019). Inter-annual variability and trends of sea level and sea surface temperature in the Mediterranean Sea over the last 25 years. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 176, 3787-3810. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-019-02156-w
  • NAO (National Audit Office) (2010). Environment Agency, Tackling diffuse water pollution in England. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1993.tb01502.x
  • Özgül, N. (2015). Determination of zooplankton fauna of Köyceğiz Lake (Muğla) and their relationship with physico-chemical properties. [dissertation]: Muğla Sıtkı Koçman University.
  • Stefan, H.G., Preud'homme, E.B. (1993). Stream temperature estimation from air temperature. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 29(1), 27-45.
  • Şen, O.L. (2013). A holistic view of climate change and its impacts in Turkey. Istanbul Policy Center, Sabancı University, Stiftung Mercator Initiative, Mercator-IPC Fellowship Project, Istanbul, Turkey.
  • Şen, Z. (2020). Water structures and climate change impact: a review. Water Resources Management, 34(13), 4197-4216. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-020-02665-7
  • Tanık, A., Seker, D.Z., Gürel, M., Adalı, I., Ertürk, A., Ekdal, A. (2005). Results of nutrient emission modeling in a watershed-application of the MONERIS Model. Proceedings of the Management of Residues Emanating from Water and Wastewater Treatment, Johannesburg, South Africa, 9-12 August.
  • Taşeli, B.K. (2017). Influence of channel traffic and Koycegiz Lake on the water quality of Dalyan Channel network. Environmental Engineering & Management Journal (EEMJ), 16(12).
  • TSMS, Turkish State Meteorologic Servise; Köyceğiz Station, air temperature data, 2012-2022. TurkStat (a). Turkish Statistical Institute, Population and demography statistics, Available online: https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/medas/?kn=101&locale=tr (accessed on 10 May 2022).
  • TurkStat (b). Turkish Statistical Institute, Agriculture statistics, Available online: https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/medas/?kn=101&locale=tr (accessed on 10 May 2022).
  • Udias, A., Malagò, A., Pastori, M., Vigiak, O., Reynaud, A., Elorza, F.J., Bouraoui, F. (2016). Identifying efficient nitrate reduction strategies in the Upper Danube. Water, 8(9), 371. https://doi.org/10.3390/w8090371
  • Vollenweider, R.A. (1976). Advances in defining critical loading levels for phosphorus in lake eutrophication. Mem. 1st ital. Idrobiol, 33, 53-58.
There are 42 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Water Quality and Water Pollution
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Elif Atasoy Aytış 0000-0001-9097-181X

Elif Soyer 0000-0003-1400-5198

Ali Ertürk 0000-0002-3532-2961

Early Pub Date July 12, 2023
Publication Date July 17, 2023
Submission Date June 16, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2023

Cite

APA Atasoy Aytış, E., Soyer, E., & Ertürk, A. (2023). Assessing eutrophication vulnerability in Köyceğiz Lake: Climate change and basin developments impact trophic status. Aquatic Research, 6(3), 201-226. https://doi.org/10.3153/AR23020

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