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Determination of Temperature Trends in The Eastern Anatolia Region of Turkey Using Innovative Trend Analysis and Mann-Kendall

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 1, 1 - 16, 30.06.2023

Öz

While global warming causes the world's atmosphere to gradually warm up, it also significantly affects water resources. Temperature is one of the most important parameters of climate change. Investigation of the trend of this parameter is very important for future studies. In this research, an analysis of the temperatures of 14 provinces in the Eastern Anatolia Region of eastern Turkey was conducted. Mann-Kendall test, Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) and statistical analysis based on ITA were used in the study. The findings of the analyzes performed showed a positive trend at 12 points. In this region, a decreasing trend was detected only in Erzurum province. In addition, it is among the findings that there is no trend in Bitlis 95% confidence interval. It was seen that the three methods used in the study supported each other at the 95% confidence interval, except for only one analysis.

Kaynakça

  • Alhathloul, S. H., Khan, A. A., & Mishra, A. K. (2021). Trend and change point detection in mean annual and seasonal maximum temperatures over Saudi Arabia, Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 14(12), 1-16.doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-07454-z
  • Bahadir, M., 2011. Temperature and precipitation trend analysis in the Southeastern Anatolia project (GAP) area, Journal of International Social Research, 4(16).,46-59. (in Turkish).
  • Bari, S. H., Rahman, M. T. U., Hoque, M. A., & Hussain, M. M. (2016). Analysis of seasonal and annual rainfall trends in the northern region of Bangladesh, Atmospheric Research, 176, 148-158.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.02.008
  • Burgan, H. I. (2022). The short-term and seasonal trend detection of sediment discharges in turkish rivers, Rocznik Ochrona Środowiska, 24, 214-230 doi.org/10.54740/ros.2022.016
  • Cannarozzo, M., Noto, L. V., & Viola, F. (2006). Spatial distribution of rainfall trends in Sicily (1921–2000). Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C, 31(18), 1201-1211. doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2006.03.022
  • Carvalho, J. R. P., Assad, E. D., Oliveira, A. F., & Pinto, H. S. (2014). Annual maximum daily rainfall trends in the Midwest, southeast and southern Brazil in the last 71 years, Weather and Climate Extremes, 5, 7-15. doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2014.10.001
  • Casa, A., & Nasello, O. (2010). Breakpoints in annual rainfall trends in Córdoba, Argentina, Atmospheric Research, 95(4), 419-427.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2009.11.005
  • Cui, L., Wang, L., Lai, Z., Tian, Q., Liu, W., & Li, J. (2017). Innovative trend analysis of annual and seasonal air temperature and rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin, China during 1960–2015, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 164, 48-59. doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2017.08.001
  • Dabanlı, İ., & Şen, Z. (2018). Classical and innovative-Şen trend assessment under climate change perspective, International Journal of Global Warming, 15(1), 19-37.
  • Esit, M. (2023). Investigation of innovative trend approaches (ITA with significance test and IPTA) comparing to the classical trend method of monthly and annual hydrometeorological variables: a case study of Ankara region, Turkey,Journal of Water and Climate Change, 14(1), 305-329.
  • Gocic, M., & Trajkovic, S. (2013). Analysis of changes in meteorological variables using Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope estimator statistical tests in Serbia, Global and Planetary Change, 100, 172-182. doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.10.014
  • Goenster, S., Wiehle, M., Gebauer, J., Ali, A. M., Stern, R. D., & Buerkert, A. (2015). Daily rainfall data to identify trends in rainfall amount and rainfall-induced agricultural events in the Nuba Mountains of Sudan, Journal of Arid Environments, 122, 16-26. doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2015.06.003
  • Güçlü, Y. S. (2018). Alternative trend analysis: half time series methodology, Water Resources Management, 32(7), 2489-2504. doi.org/10.1007/s11269-018-1942-4
  • Kamruzzaman, M., Beecham, S., & Metcalfe, A. V. (2016). Estimation of trends in rainfall extremes with mixed effects models, Atmospheric Research, 168, 24-32. doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.08.018
  • Karmeshu, N. (2012). Trend detection in annual temperature & precipitation using the Mann Kendall test–a case study to assess climate change on select states in the northeastern United StateMaster of Enivironmental Studies Capstone Projects, M.Sc. Thesis, Department of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania. United States. Kendall, M., 1975. Rank Correlation Methods. London: Charles Griffin.
  • Khan, A., Chatterjee, S., & Bisai, D. (2017). Air temperature variability and trend analysis by non-parametric test for Kolkata observatory, West Bengal, India, Indian Journal of Geo-Marine Sciences, 46(5), 966-971.
  • Lambe, B. T., & Kundapura, S. (2021). Analysis of meteorological variability and tendency over Bilate basin of Rift Valley Lakes basins in Ethiopia, Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 14(23), 1-22. doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-08962-8
  • Mann, H. B. (1945). Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society, 245-259.
  • Onyutha, C. (2016). Statistical analyses of potential evapotranspiration changes over the period 1930–2012 in the Nile River riparian countries, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 226, 80-95. doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.05.015
  • Partal, T., & Kahya, E. (2006). Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data, Hydrological Processes20(9), 2011-2026.
  • Saplıoğlu, K., & Çoban, E. (2013). Karadeniz bölgesi yağış serilerinin trend analizi. VII. Ulusal Hidroloji Kongresi Bildirileri, Isparta, Turkey.
  • Saplıoğlu, K., Kilit, M., & Yavuz, B. K. (2014). Trend analysis of streams in the western mediterranean basin of Turkey, Fresenius Environmental Bulletin, 23(1), 313-327.
  • Saplıoğlu, K. (2015). A New methodology for trend analysis: A case study in Burdur and Isparta, Turkey, Fresenius environmental Bulletin, 24, 3344-3351.
  • Saplıoğlu, K., Küçükerdem, T. S., & Dawood Alqaysi, R. S. (2017). Determination of water quality classes and trends of Mediterranean region streams. Dicle University Journal of Engineering, 8(1), 4. (in Turkish)
  • Singh, V., & Goyal, M. K. (2016). Analysis and trends of precipitation lapse rate and extreme indices over north Sikkim eastern Himalayas under CMIP5ESM-2M RCPs experiments, Atmospheric Research, 167, 34-60. doi: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.07.005
  • Syafrina, A. H., Zalina, M. D., & Juneng, L. (2015). Historical trend of hourly extreme rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 120(1), 259-285. doi: 10.1007/s00704-014-1145-8
  • Şen, Z. (2012). Innovative trend analysis methodology, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 17(9), 1042-1046. doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000556
  • Saplıoğlu, K., & Güçlü, Y. S. (2022). Combination of Wilcoxon test and scatter diagram for trend analysis of hydrological data, Journal of Hydrology, 612, 128132.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128132
  • Şen, Z. (2014). Trend identification simulation and application, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 19(3), 635-642. doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000811
  • Yue, S., & Hashino, M. (2003). Long term trends of annual and monthly precipitation in Japan, JAWRA, Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 39(3), 587-596. doi: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2003.tb03677.x
  • Yue, S., Pilon, P., & Cavadias, G. (2002). Power of the Mann–Kendall and Spearman's rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series,Journal of hydrology, 259(1-4), 254-271. doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00594-7

Türkiye'nin Doğu Anadolu Bölgesindeki Sıcaklık Eğilimlerinin Yenilikçi Trend Analizi ve Mann-Kendall ile Belirlenmesi

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 1, 1 - 16, 30.06.2023

Öz

Küresel ısınma dünya atmosferinin kademeli olarak ısınmasına neden olurken, su kaynaklarını da önemli oranda etkilemektedir. İklim değişiminin en önemli parametrelerinin başında da sıcaklık gelmektedir. Bu parametrenin trendinin araştırılması gelecekte yapılacak çalışmalar açısından oldukça önemlidir. Bu araştırmada, Türkiye'nin doğusunda Doğu Anadolu Bölgesi'nde bulunan 14 ile ait sıcaklıklara ilişkin analiz yapılmıştır. Çalışmada, Mann-Kendall testi, Yenilikçi Trend Analizi (ITA) ve ITA'yı baz alan istatistiksel analiz kullanılmıştır. Yapılan analizlerin bulguları, 12 noktada pozitif bir trend görülmüştür. Bu bölgede sadece Erzurum ilinde bir düşüş eğilimi tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca %95 güven aralığında Bitlis'de herhangi bir trend oluşmadığı da bulgular arasındadır. Çalışmada kullanılan üç yöntemin, sadece bir analiz dışında, %95 güven aralığında birbirini destekledikleri görülmüştür.

Kaynakça

  • Alhathloul, S. H., Khan, A. A., & Mishra, A. K. (2021). Trend and change point detection in mean annual and seasonal maximum temperatures over Saudi Arabia, Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 14(12), 1-16.doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-07454-z
  • Bahadir, M., 2011. Temperature and precipitation trend analysis in the Southeastern Anatolia project (GAP) area, Journal of International Social Research, 4(16).,46-59. (in Turkish).
  • Bari, S. H., Rahman, M. T. U., Hoque, M. A., & Hussain, M. M. (2016). Analysis of seasonal and annual rainfall trends in the northern region of Bangladesh, Atmospheric Research, 176, 148-158.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.02.008
  • Burgan, H. I. (2022). The short-term and seasonal trend detection of sediment discharges in turkish rivers, Rocznik Ochrona Środowiska, 24, 214-230 doi.org/10.54740/ros.2022.016
  • Cannarozzo, M., Noto, L. V., & Viola, F. (2006). Spatial distribution of rainfall trends in Sicily (1921–2000). Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C, 31(18), 1201-1211. doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2006.03.022
  • Carvalho, J. R. P., Assad, E. D., Oliveira, A. F., & Pinto, H. S. (2014). Annual maximum daily rainfall trends in the Midwest, southeast and southern Brazil in the last 71 years, Weather and Climate Extremes, 5, 7-15. doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2014.10.001
  • Casa, A., & Nasello, O. (2010). Breakpoints in annual rainfall trends in Córdoba, Argentina, Atmospheric Research, 95(4), 419-427.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2009.11.005
  • Cui, L., Wang, L., Lai, Z., Tian, Q., Liu, W., & Li, J. (2017). Innovative trend analysis of annual and seasonal air temperature and rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin, China during 1960–2015, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 164, 48-59. doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2017.08.001
  • Dabanlı, İ., & Şen, Z. (2018). Classical and innovative-Şen trend assessment under climate change perspective, International Journal of Global Warming, 15(1), 19-37.
  • Esit, M. (2023). Investigation of innovative trend approaches (ITA with significance test and IPTA) comparing to the classical trend method of monthly and annual hydrometeorological variables: a case study of Ankara region, Turkey,Journal of Water and Climate Change, 14(1), 305-329.
  • Gocic, M., & Trajkovic, S. (2013). Analysis of changes in meteorological variables using Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope estimator statistical tests in Serbia, Global and Planetary Change, 100, 172-182. doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.10.014
  • Goenster, S., Wiehle, M., Gebauer, J., Ali, A. M., Stern, R. D., & Buerkert, A. (2015). Daily rainfall data to identify trends in rainfall amount and rainfall-induced agricultural events in the Nuba Mountains of Sudan, Journal of Arid Environments, 122, 16-26. doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2015.06.003
  • Güçlü, Y. S. (2018). Alternative trend analysis: half time series methodology, Water Resources Management, 32(7), 2489-2504. doi.org/10.1007/s11269-018-1942-4
  • Kamruzzaman, M., Beecham, S., & Metcalfe, A. V. (2016). Estimation of trends in rainfall extremes with mixed effects models, Atmospheric Research, 168, 24-32. doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.08.018
  • Karmeshu, N. (2012). Trend detection in annual temperature & precipitation using the Mann Kendall test–a case study to assess climate change on select states in the northeastern United StateMaster of Enivironmental Studies Capstone Projects, M.Sc. Thesis, Department of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania. United States. Kendall, M., 1975. Rank Correlation Methods. London: Charles Griffin.
  • Khan, A., Chatterjee, S., & Bisai, D. (2017). Air temperature variability and trend analysis by non-parametric test for Kolkata observatory, West Bengal, India, Indian Journal of Geo-Marine Sciences, 46(5), 966-971.
  • Lambe, B. T., & Kundapura, S. (2021). Analysis of meteorological variability and tendency over Bilate basin of Rift Valley Lakes basins in Ethiopia, Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 14(23), 1-22. doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-08962-8
  • Mann, H. B. (1945). Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society, 245-259.
  • Onyutha, C. (2016). Statistical analyses of potential evapotranspiration changes over the period 1930–2012 in the Nile River riparian countries, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 226, 80-95. doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.05.015
  • Partal, T., & Kahya, E. (2006). Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data, Hydrological Processes20(9), 2011-2026.
  • Saplıoğlu, K., & Çoban, E. (2013). Karadeniz bölgesi yağış serilerinin trend analizi. VII. Ulusal Hidroloji Kongresi Bildirileri, Isparta, Turkey.
  • Saplıoğlu, K., Kilit, M., & Yavuz, B. K. (2014). Trend analysis of streams in the western mediterranean basin of Turkey, Fresenius Environmental Bulletin, 23(1), 313-327.
  • Saplıoğlu, K. (2015). A New methodology for trend analysis: A case study in Burdur and Isparta, Turkey, Fresenius environmental Bulletin, 24, 3344-3351.
  • Saplıoğlu, K., Küçükerdem, T. S., & Dawood Alqaysi, R. S. (2017). Determination of water quality classes and trends of Mediterranean region streams. Dicle University Journal of Engineering, 8(1), 4. (in Turkish)
  • Singh, V., & Goyal, M. K. (2016). Analysis and trends of precipitation lapse rate and extreme indices over north Sikkim eastern Himalayas under CMIP5ESM-2M RCPs experiments, Atmospheric Research, 167, 34-60. doi: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.07.005
  • Syafrina, A. H., Zalina, M. D., & Juneng, L. (2015). Historical trend of hourly extreme rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 120(1), 259-285. doi: 10.1007/s00704-014-1145-8
  • Şen, Z. (2012). Innovative trend analysis methodology, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 17(9), 1042-1046. doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000556
  • Saplıoğlu, K., & Güçlü, Y. S. (2022). Combination of Wilcoxon test and scatter diagram for trend analysis of hydrological data, Journal of Hydrology, 612, 128132.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128132
  • Şen, Z. (2014). Trend identification simulation and application, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 19(3), 635-642. doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000811
  • Yue, S., & Hashino, M. (2003). Long term trends of annual and monthly precipitation in Japan, JAWRA, Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 39(3), 587-596. doi: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2003.tb03677.x
  • Yue, S., Pilon, P., & Cavadias, G. (2002). Power of the Mann–Kendall and Spearman's rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series,Journal of hydrology, 259(1-4), 254-271. doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00594-7
Toplam 31 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular İnşaat Mühendisliği
Bölüm Araştırma Makaleleri
Yazarlar

M. Erol Keskin 0000-0003-3749-5169

Kemal Saplıoğlu 0000-0003-0016-8690

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 27 Haziran 2023
Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Haziran 2023
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023 Cilt: 5 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Keskin, M. E., & Saplıoğlu, K. (2023). Türkiye’nin Doğu Anadolu Bölgesindeki Sıcaklık Eğilimlerinin Yenilikçi Trend Analizi ve Mann-Kendall ile Belirlenmesi. Journal of Innovations in Civil Engineering and Technology, 5(1), 1-16.