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Temperature series analysis of the Hirfanli Dam Basin with the Mann-Kendall and Sequential Mann-Kendall tests

Year 2023, Volume: 7 Issue: 4, 306 - 313, 05.10.2023
https://doi.org/10.31127/tuje.1145716

Abstract

Global warming is a result of the greenhouse effect caused by the gases released into the atmosphere; It is usually expressed as an increase in the measured average temperatures. In addition to this, extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, and severe hurricanes become more frequent, and the specified extreme events become more severe. The effects of global climate change on hydrological and meteorological variables are increasing day by day. Therefore, hydro-meteorological parameters should be examined carefully. In this study, the effects of global climate change on the Hirfanli Dam Basin temperature series were investigated using the Mann-Kendall Test and Sequential Mann–Kendall Test. The annual mean temperature series of six stations recorded between 1965 and 2017 were analyzed and evaluated. It has been determined that the annual mean temperature has increased throughout the basin and significant increases started since the 1990s. Researches analysing the effects of global climate change on hydro-meteorological parameters related to the Hirfanli Dam Basin should be increased. These studies may be the investigation of the trends of climate parameters with different methods, as well as their relations with global atmospheric indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation and Southern Oscillation. In the Hirfanlı Dam Basin, which shows semi-arid climate characteristics, especially drought disaster should be investigated. In addition to drought detection, these studies should be conducted with an integrated disaster management perspective in order to prepare for drought disasters. With the perspective of integrated disaster management, it will be more resilience to disasters with plans in which all components in the basin are together and effective against many disasters, especially drought.

References

  • Türkeş, M., Sümer, B. M., & Kılıç, G. (1995). Variations and trends in annual mean air temperatures in Turkey with respect to climatic variability. International Journal of Climatology, 15(5), 557-569.
  • Türkeş, M. (1996). Spatial and temporal analysis of annual rainfall variations in Turkey. International Journal of Climatology, 16(9), 1057‐1076.
  • Cigizoglu, H. K., Bayazıt, M., & Önöz, B. (2005). Trends in the maximum mean and low flows of Turkish Rivers. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 6(3), 280-290.
  • Bahadır, M. (2011). Kızılırmak Nehri akım değişimlerinin istatistiksel analizi. Turkish Studies, 6(3), 1339-1356.
  • Ay, M. & Kişi, Ö. (2016). Debi ve sediment değişkenlerinin trend analizi. Dicle Üniversitesi Mühendislik Fakültesi Mühendislik Dergisi, 7(2), 169-180.
  • Yenigün, K. & Ülgen, M. (2016). İklim değişikliği ekseninde maksimum akım verilerindeki trendler ve baraj güvenliğine etkisinin izlenmesi. Dicle Üniversitesi Mühendislik Fakültesi Mühendislik Dergisi, 7(2), 343-353.
  • Tekkanat, S. (2016). Porsuk Çayı üst kesiminde ortalama akımların Şen trend metodu kullanılarak araştırılması. Coğrafi Bilimler Dergisi, 15(1), 49-57.
  • Kale, S., Ejder, T., Hisar, O. & Mutlu, F. (2016). Climate change impacts on streamflow of Karamenderes River (Çanakkale, Turkey). Marine Science and Technology Bulletin, 5(2), 1-6.
  • Kale, S. (2017). Analysis of climatic trends in evaporation for Canakkale (Turkey). Middle East Journal of Science, 3(2), 69-82.
  • Kale, S. (2017). Climatic trends in the temperature of Çanakkale city, Turkey. Natural and Engineering Sciences, 2(3), 14-27.
  • Ülke Keskin, A., Beden, N. & Demir, V. (2018). Analysis of annual, seasonal and monthly trends of climatic data: A case study of Samsun. Nature Sciences, 13(3), 51-70.
  • Ceribasi, G. (2018). Analysis of meteorological and hydrological data of Iznik Lake Basin by using Innovative Sen Method. Journal of Environmental Protection and Ecology, 19(1), 15-24.
  • Kale, S. & Sönmez, A. (2018). Trend analysis of mean monthly, seasonally and annual streamflow of Daday Stream in Kastamonu, Turkey. Marine Science and Technology Bulletin, 7(2), 60-67.
  • Zeybekoğlu, U. & Karahan, H. (2018). Standart süreli yağış şiddetlerinin eğilim analizi yöntemleriyle incelenmesi. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, 24(6), 974-1004.
  • Yilmaz, M. & Tosunoğlu, F. (2019). Trend assessment of annual instantaneous maximum flows in Turkey. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 64(7), 820-834.
  • Topuz, M., Feidas, H. & Karabulut, M. (2020). Trend analysis of precipitation data in Turkey and relations to atmospheric circulation: (1955-2013). Italian Journal of Agrometeorology, 2, 91-107.
  • Yilmaz, C. B., Demir, V., Sevimli, M. F., Demir, F., & Yakar. (2021). Trend Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation in Mediterranean Region. Advanced GIS Journal, 1(1), 15-21.
  • Yilmaz, C., Demir, V., & Sevimli, M. F. (2021). Doğu Karadeniz Bölgesi Meteorolojik Parametrelerinin Trend Analizi. Avrupa Bilim ve Teknoloji Dergisi, 24, 489-496.
  • Keskin, M. E., Çokta, İ., Çetin, V. & Bektaş, O. (2018). Doğu Anadolu Bölgesi yağış ve sıcaklık trend analizi. Mühendislik Bilimleri ve Tasarım Dergisi, 6(2), 294-300.
  • Ülke Keskin, A. & Özkoca, T. (2018). Sinop, Ordu ve Samsun illerinin sıcaklık verilerinde trend analizi. Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü Dergisi, 8(2), 455-463.
  • Köyceğiz, C. & Büyükyildiz, M. (2020). Determination of change point and trend analysis of annual temperature data in Konya Closed Basin Turkey. Niğde Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, 9(1), 393-404.
  • Yildiz, O. (2009). Assessing temporal and spatial characteristics of droughts in the Hirfanli Dam Basin Turkey. Scientific Research and Essays, 4(4), 249-255.
  • Yildiz, O. (2014). Spatiotemporal analysis of historical droughts in the Central Anatolia Turkey. Gazi University Journal of Science, 27(4), 1177-1184.
  • Aktürk, G. & Yildiz, O. (2016). Assessing hydrological responses to droughts in the Hirfanli Dam Basin Turkey. International Journal of Advances in Mechanical and Civil Engineering, 3(5), 116-123.
  • Zeybekoglu, U. & Akturk, G. (2022). Homogeneity and Trend Analysis of Temperature Series in Hirfanli Dam Basin. Türk Doğa ve Fen Dergisi, 11(1), 49-58.
  • Zeybekoğlu, U., & Aktürk, G. (2021). A comparison of the China-Z index (CZI) and the standardized precipitation index (SPI) for drought assessment in the Hirfanli Dam basin in central Turkey. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 14(24), 1-13.
  • Mann, H. B. (1945). Non-parametric test against trend. Econometrika, 13, 245-259.
  • Kendall, M. G. (1975). Rank Correlation Method, London: Charles Griffin.
  • Bayazıt, M. (1996). İnşaat Mühendisliğinde Olasılık Yöntemleri, İstanbul: İTÜ İnşaat Fakültesi Matbaası.
  • Bihrat, Ö. N. Ö. Z., & Bayazit, M. (2003). The power of statistical tests for trend detection. Turkish Journal of Engineering and Environmental Sciences, 27(4), 247-251.
  • Partal, T. & Kahya, E. (2006). Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data. Hydrological Processes, 20(9), 2011-2026.
  • Yu, S., Zou, S. & Whittemore, D. (1993). Non-parametric trend analysis of water quality data of Rivers in Kansas. Journal of Hydrology, 150(1), 61-80.
  • Gumus, V. & Yenigun, K. (2006). Evaluation of Lower Firat Basin streamflow by trend analysis. 7th International Advances in Civil Engineering Conference, 11-13 October 2006, Istanbul.
  • Sneyers, R. (1990). On Statistical Analysis of Series of Observations. W.M.O., Technical Note No: 415, Geneva.
  • Arslan, O. (2017). Niğde İli’ndeki potansiyel evapotranspirasyon tahminlerinin trend analizi. Niğde Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, 6(2), 602-608.
  • Watson, R. T. (2001). IPCC Special Report: Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Türkeş, M. (2007). İklim Değişiliği Nedir? Temel Kavramlar, Nedenleri, Gözlenen ve Öngörülen Değişiklikler. I.Türkiye İklim Değişikliği Kongresi, 11-13 Nisan 2007, İstanbul.
  • Kadioğlu, M. (1997). Trends in surface air temperature data over Turkey. International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 17(5), 511-520.
  • Kızılelma, Y., Çelik, M. & Karabulut, M. (2015). İç Anadolu Bölgesinde sıcaklık ve yağışların trend analizi. Türk Coğrafya Dergisi, 64, 1-10.
  • Doğan, M., Ulke, A. & Cigizoglu, H. K. (2015). Trend direction changes of Turkish temperature series in the first half of 1990s. Theor. Appl. Clim., 121(1-2), 23-39.
  • Kuyucu, H., Demir, V., Geyikli, M. S. & Citakoglu, H. (2017). Trend Analysis of Turkey Temperatures. 1st International Symposium on Multidisciplinary Studies and Innovative Technologies, 2-4 November 2017, Tokat.
  • Abbasnia, M., & Toros, H. (2020). Trend analysis of weather extremes across the coastal and non-coastal areas (case study: Turkey). Journal of Earth System Science, 129, 1-13.
  • Ercan, B., Yuce, M. I. (2017). Trend analysis of hydro-meteorological variables of Kızılırmak Basin. Nevşehir Bilim ve Teknoloji Dergisi, 6(ICOCEE 2017 Özel Sayı), 333-340.
  • Terzi, O. & Ilker, O. (2020). Trend analysis of temperature values in Kızılırmak Basin. Süleyman Demirel University Journal of Natural and Applied Sciences, 24(3), 626-634.
  • Altin, T. B. (2017). Observed Changes in Annual and Seasonal Temperatures in Nevşehir (Central Anatolia, Turkey) for Period 1960-2016. Eurasian Journal of Agricultural Research, 1(2), 4-12.
  • İlker, A. & Terzi, Ö. (2021). Sıcaklık verilerinin trend analizi: Çankiri ve Kastamonu örneği. Mühendislik Bilimleri ve Tasarım Dergisi, 9(4), 1339-1347.
  • Karakuş, C. B. & Güler, Ü. A. (2022). Mann-Kendall trend analizi ile Sivas ilindeki sıcaklık ve yağış trendlerinin belirlenmesi. Niğde Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, 11(3), 534-544.
  • Altın, T., Barak, B. & Altın, B. (2012). Change in Precipitation and Temperature Amounts over Three Decades in Central Anatolia, Turkey. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 2(1), 107-125.
  • Yildirim, S. D., & Yilmaz, G. (2019). Yunanistan Attika Bölgesi Yangınının Değerlendirilmesi. Resilience Journal, 3(2), 201-215.
Year 2023, Volume: 7 Issue: 4, 306 - 313, 05.10.2023
https://doi.org/10.31127/tuje.1145716

Abstract

References

  • Türkeş, M., Sümer, B. M., & Kılıç, G. (1995). Variations and trends in annual mean air temperatures in Turkey with respect to climatic variability. International Journal of Climatology, 15(5), 557-569.
  • Türkeş, M. (1996). Spatial and temporal analysis of annual rainfall variations in Turkey. International Journal of Climatology, 16(9), 1057‐1076.
  • Cigizoglu, H. K., Bayazıt, M., & Önöz, B. (2005). Trends in the maximum mean and low flows of Turkish Rivers. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 6(3), 280-290.
  • Bahadır, M. (2011). Kızılırmak Nehri akım değişimlerinin istatistiksel analizi. Turkish Studies, 6(3), 1339-1356.
  • Ay, M. & Kişi, Ö. (2016). Debi ve sediment değişkenlerinin trend analizi. Dicle Üniversitesi Mühendislik Fakültesi Mühendislik Dergisi, 7(2), 169-180.
  • Yenigün, K. & Ülgen, M. (2016). İklim değişikliği ekseninde maksimum akım verilerindeki trendler ve baraj güvenliğine etkisinin izlenmesi. Dicle Üniversitesi Mühendislik Fakültesi Mühendislik Dergisi, 7(2), 343-353.
  • Tekkanat, S. (2016). Porsuk Çayı üst kesiminde ortalama akımların Şen trend metodu kullanılarak araştırılması. Coğrafi Bilimler Dergisi, 15(1), 49-57.
  • Kale, S., Ejder, T., Hisar, O. & Mutlu, F. (2016). Climate change impacts on streamflow of Karamenderes River (Çanakkale, Turkey). Marine Science and Technology Bulletin, 5(2), 1-6.
  • Kale, S. (2017). Analysis of climatic trends in evaporation for Canakkale (Turkey). Middle East Journal of Science, 3(2), 69-82.
  • Kale, S. (2017). Climatic trends in the temperature of Çanakkale city, Turkey. Natural and Engineering Sciences, 2(3), 14-27.
  • Ülke Keskin, A., Beden, N. & Demir, V. (2018). Analysis of annual, seasonal and monthly trends of climatic data: A case study of Samsun. Nature Sciences, 13(3), 51-70.
  • Ceribasi, G. (2018). Analysis of meteorological and hydrological data of Iznik Lake Basin by using Innovative Sen Method. Journal of Environmental Protection and Ecology, 19(1), 15-24.
  • Kale, S. & Sönmez, A. (2018). Trend analysis of mean monthly, seasonally and annual streamflow of Daday Stream in Kastamonu, Turkey. Marine Science and Technology Bulletin, 7(2), 60-67.
  • Zeybekoğlu, U. & Karahan, H. (2018). Standart süreli yağış şiddetlerinin eğilim analizi yöntemleriyle incelenmesi. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, 24(6), 974-1004.
  • Yilmaz, M. & Tosunoğlu, F. (2019). Trend assessment of annual instantaneous maximum flows in Turkey. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 64(7), 820-834.
  • Topuz, M., Feidas, H. & Karabulut, M. (2020). Trend analysis of precipitation data in Turkey and relations to atmospheric circulation: (1955-2013). Italian Journal of Agrometeorology, 2, 91-107.
  • Yilmaz, C. B., Demir, V., Sevimli, M. F., Demir, F., & Yakar. (2021). Trend Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation in Mediterranean Region. Advanced GIS Journal, 1(1), 15-21.
  • Yilmaz, C., Demir, V., & Sevimli, M. F. (2021). Doğu Karadeniz Bölgesi Meteorolojik Parametrelerinin Trend Analizi. Avrupa Bilim ve Teknoloji Dergisi, 24, 489-496.
  • Keskin, M. E., Çokta, İ., Çetin, V. & Bektaş, O. (2018). Doğu Anadolu Bölgesi yağış ve sıcaklık trend analizi. Mühendislik Bilimleri ve Tasarım Dergisi, 6(2), 294-300.
  • Ülke Keskin, A. & Özkoca, T. (2018). Sinop, Ordu ve Samsun illerinin sıcaklık verilerinde trend analizi. Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü Dergisi, 8(2), 455-463.
  • Köyceğiz, C. & Büyükyildiz, M. (2020). Determination of change point and trend analysis of annual temperature data in Konya Closed Basin Turkey. Niğde Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, 9(1), 393-404.
  • Yildiz, O. (2009). Assessing temporal and spatial characteristics of droughts in the Hirfanli Dam Basin Turkey. Scientific Research and Essays, 4(4), 249-255.
  • Yildiz, O. (2014). Spatiotemporal analysis of historical droughts in the Central Anatolia Turkey. Gazi University Journal of Science, 27(4), 1177-1184.
  • Aktürk, G. & Yildiz, O. (2016). Assessing hydrological responses to droughts in the Hirfanli Dam Basin Turkey. International Journal of Advances in Mechanical and Civil Engineering, 3(5), 116-123.
  • Zeybekoglu, U. & Akturk, G. (2022). Homogeneity and Trend Analysis of Temperature Series in Hirfanli Dam Basin. Türk Doğa ve Fen Dergisi, 11(1), 49-58.
  • Zeybekoğlu, U., & Aktürk, G. (2021). A comparison of the China-Z index (CZI) and the standardized precipitation index (SPI) for drought assessment in the Hirfanli Dam basin in central Turkey. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 14(24), 1-13.
  • Mann, H. B. (1945). Non-parametric test against trend. Econometrika, 13, 245-259.
  • Kendall, M. G. (1975). Rank Correlation Method, London: Charles Griffin.
  • Bayazıt, M. (1996). İnşaat Mühendisliğinde Olasılık Yöntemleri, İstanbul: İTÜ İnşaat Fakültesi Matbaası.
  • Bihrat, Ö. N. Ö. Z., & Bayazit, M. (2003). The power of statistical tests for trend detection. Turkish Journal of Engineering and Environmental Sciences, 27(4), 247-251.
  • Partal, T. & Kahya, E. (2006). Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data. Hydrological Processes, 20(9), 2011-2026.
  • Yu, S., Zou, S. & Whittemore, D. (1993). Non-parametric trend analysis of water quality data of Rivers in Kansas. Journal of Hydrology, 150(1), 61-80.
  • Gumus, V. & Yenigun, K. (2006). Evaluation of Lower Firat Basin streamflow by trend analysis. 7th International Advances in Civil Engineering Conference, 11-13 October 2006, Istanbul.
  • Sneyers, R. (1990). On Statistical Analysis of Series of Observations. W.M.O., Technical Note No: 415, Geneva.
  • Arslan, O. (2017). Niğde İli’ndeki potansiyel evapotranspirasyon tahminlerinin trend analizi. Niğde Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, 6(2), 602-608.
  • Watson, R. T. (2001). IPCC Special Report: Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Türkeş, M. (2007). İklim Değişiliği Nedir? Temel Kavramlar, Nedenleri, Gözlenen ve Öngörülen Değişiklikler. I.Türkiye İklim Değişikliği Kongresi, 11-13 Nisan 2007, İstanbul.
  • Kadioğlu, M. (1997). Trends in surface air temperature data over Turkey. International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 17(5), 511-520.
  • Kızılelma, Y., Çelik, M. & Karabulut, M. (2015). İç Anadolu Bölgesinde sıcaklık ve yağışların trend analizi. Türk Coğrafya Dergisi, 64, 1-10.
  • Doğan, M., Ulke, A. & Cigizoglu, H. K. (2015). Trend direction changes of Turkish temperature series in the first half of 1990s. Theor. Appl. Clim., 121(1-2), 23-39.
  • Kuyucu, H., Demir, V., Geyikli, M. S. & Citakoglu, H. (2017). Trend Analysis of Turkey Temperatures. 1st International Symposium on Multidisciplinary Studies and Innovative Technologies, 2-4 November 2017, Tokat.
  • Abbasnia, M., & Toros, H. (2020). Trend analysis of weather extremes across the coastal and non-coastal areas (case study: Turkey). Journal of Earth System Science, 129, 1-13.
  • Ercan, B., Yuce, M. I. (2017). Trend analysis of hydro-meteorological variables of Kızılırmak Basin. Nevşehir Bilim ve Teknoloji Dergisi, 6(ICOCEE 2017 Özel Sayı), 333-340.
  • Terzi, O. & Ilker, O. (2020). Trend analysis of temperature values in Kızılırmak Basin. Süleyman Demirel University Journal of Natural and Applied Sciences, 24(3), 626-634.
  • Altin, T. B. (2017). Observed Changes in Annual and Seasonal Temperatures in Nevşehir (Central Anatolia, Turkey) for Period 1960-2016. Eurasian Journal of Agricultural Research, 1(2), 4-12.
  • İlker, A. & Terzi, Ö. (2021). Sıcaklık verilerinin trend analizi: Çankiri ve Kastamonu örneği. Mühendislik Bilimleri ve Tasarım Dergisi, 9(4), 1339-1347.
  • Karakuş, C. B. & Güler, Ü. A. (2022). Mann-Kendall trend analizi ile Sivas ilindeki sıcaklık ve yağış trendlerinin belirlenmesi. Niğde Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, 11(3), 534-544.
  • Altın, T., Barak, B. & Altın, B. (2012). Change in Precipitation and Temperature Amounts over Three Decades in Central Anatolia, Turkey. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 2(1), 107-125.
  • Yildirim, S. D., & Yilmaz, G. (2019). Yunanistan Attika Bölgesi Yangınının Değerlendirilmesi. Resilience Journal, 3(2), 201-215.
There are 49 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Engineering
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Utku Zeybekoğlu 0000-0001-5307-8563

Early Pub Date June 22, 2023
Publication Date October 5, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2023 Volume: 7 Issue: 4

Cite

APA Zeybekoğlu, U. (2023). Temperature series analysis of the Hirfanli Dam Basin with the Mann-Kendall and Sequential Mann-Kendall tests. Turkish Journal of Engineering, 7(4), 306-313. https://doi.org/10.31127/tuje.1145716
AMA Zeybekoğlu U. Temperature series analysis of the Hirfanli Dam Basin with the Mann-Kendall and Sequential Mann-Kendall tests. TUJE. October 2023;7(4):306-313. doi:10.31127/tuje.1145716
Chicago Zeybekoğlu, Utku. “Temperature Series Analysis of the Hirfanli Dam Basin With the Mann-Kendall and Sequential Mann-Kendall Tests”. Turkish Journal of Engineering 7, no. 4 (October 2023): 306-13. https://doi.org/10.31127/tuje.1145716.
EndNote Zeybekoğlu U (October 1, 2023) Temperature series analysis of the Hirfanli Dam Basin with the Mann-Kendall and Sequential Mann-Kendall tests. Turkish Journal of Engineering 7 4 306–313.
IEEE U. Zeybekoğlu, “Temperature series analysis of the Hirfanli Dam Basin with the Mann-Kendall and Sequential Mann-Kendall tests”, TUJE, vol. 7, no. 4, pp. 306–313, 2023, doi: 10.31127/tuje.1145716.
ISNAD Zeybekoğlu, Utku. “Temperature Series Analysis of the Hirfanli Dam Basin With the Mann-Kendall and Sequential Mann-Kendall Tests”. Turkish Journal of Engineering 7/4 (October 2023), 306-313. https://doi.org/10.31127/tuje.1145716.
JAMA Zeybekoğlu U. Temperature series analysis of the Hirfanli Dam Basin with the Mann-Kendall and Sequential Mann-Kendall tests. TUJE. 2023;7:306–313.
MLA Zeybekoğlu, Utku. “Temperature Series Analysis of the Hirfanli Dam Basin With the Mann-Kendall and Sequential Mann-Kendall Tests”. Turkish Journal of Engineering, vol. 7, no. 4, 2023, pp. 306-13, doi:10.31127/tuje.1145716.
Vancouver Zeybekoğlu U. Temperature series analysis of the Hirfanli Dam Basin with the Mann-Kendall and Sequential Mann-Kendall tests. TUJE. 2023;7(4):306-13.
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