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Predicting Climate-induced Groundwater Depletion: A Case Study in Şuhut Alluvial Aquifer

Year 2022, Volume: 6 Issue: 1, 145 - 176, 13.01.2022

Kübra Özdemir Çallı Yasemin Taşcı Mustafa Uzun Yakup Karaaslan

https://doi.org/10.31807/tjwsm.947685

Abstract

In this study, we examined the potential impact of climate change on the depletion of groundwater levels and storage. To achieve so, we simulated the groundwater flow using the HİDROTÜRK hydrogeological model under the climate change projections considering the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. To estimate the model forcing input (recharge and evapotranspiration) for the hydrogeological model, we used precipitation and temperature outputs from two Global Circulation Models, namely HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM-MR. To assess the changes in groundwater level and storage, we applied our experimental design in the Şuhut alluvial aquifer in Akarçay Basin (Turkey). The study revealed that there is not necessarily a substantial difference tracked over the estimated groundwater levels between the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios until the end of 2050s. Yet, a significant reduction in the hydraulic head (approximately 114 m) and storage change (-17.25 %) – particularly in the western part of the aquifer – is expected in 2100, according to RCP8.5. This study confirmed that the selected climate model not only leads to the different predictions in the groundwater depletion, yet also results in a different degree of confidence in the model simulations.

Keywords

Akarçay Basin Climate change impact Global circulation models (GCMs) Groundwater depletion Şuhut alluvial aquifer

Thanks

This research was carried out in the Republic of Turkey Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Directorate General for Water Management. The HİDROTÜRK hydrogeological model developed by the Republic of Turkey Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, General Directorate of Water Management (GDWM) for the sustainable management of the water resources in Turkey was used in the modelling experiment. Kübra Özdemir Çallı (KÇ) and Yasemin Taşcı (YT) were involved in the model conceptualism and data preparation for the numerical model development and set-up. KÇ carried out the model experimental design while YT implemented the experiment in the model. KÇ performed the post-processing of the obtained model results, thereby visualizing the plots in R-studio. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript. The authors thank to Bilal Dikmen (General Directorate of Water Management), Mustafa Uzun (Deputy Director of General Directorate of Water Management), Nermin Anul (Head of Department of Monitoring and Water Information System), and Neşat Onur Şanlı (Supervisor of Modelling Working Group) for appreciating to carry out modelling studies in Turkey.

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Year 2022, Volume: 6 Issue: 1, 145 - 176, 13.01.2022

Kübra Özdemir Çallı Yasemin Taşcı Mustafa Uzun Yakup Karaaslan

https://doi.org/10.31807/tjwsm.947685

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, iklim değişikliğinin yeraltısuyu seviyesi ve depolanması üzerindeki olası etkisi incelenmiştir. Bu kapsamda, RCP4.5 ve RCP8.5 iklim değişikliği projeksiyonları altında, yeraltı suyu akımı HİDROTÜRK hidrojeoloji modeli kullanılarak simüle edilmiştir. Hidrojeoloji modelinde iklim girdilerinin (beslenme ve evapotranspirasyon) tahmini için, iki farklı Küresel Dolaşım Modelinin (GCM) – HadGEM2-ES ve MPI-ESM-MR – iklim çıktıları (yağış ve sıcaklık) kullanılmıştır. Yeraltı suyu seviyesinde ve depolamasında iklime bağlı değişimin iklim senaryoları gözetilerek karşılaştırmalı değerlendirilmesi amacıyla Akarçay Havzası'ndaki (Türkiye) Şuhut alüvyon akiferinde yeraltısuyu akım modeli kurulmuştur. Çalışma sonucunda, 2050'nin sonuna kadar RCP4.5 ve RCP8.5 senaryolarının her ikisine göre, öngörülen yeraltı suyu seviyelerindeki düşüşlerin birbirinden çok farklı olmayacağı ortaya konmuştur. Öte yandan, RCP8.5 senaryosuna göre, bu yüzyılın sonuna kadar akiferdeki yük kaybının (yaklaşık 114 m) ve depolamadaki azalmanın (%-17.25) – özellikle akiferin Batı kesiminde – önemli ölçüde olabileceği öngörülmüştür. Çalışma ayrıca, iklim modellerinin seçiminin yalnızca farklı model tahminlerine yol açmadığını, aynı zamanda model simülasyonlarının da farklı güvenirlik derecesine yol açtığı sonucunu desteklemiştir.

Keywords

Akarçay Havzası iklim değişikliği etkisi küresel iklim modelleri yeraltısuyu azalımı Şuhut alüvyon akiferi.

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Details

Primary Language English
Journal Section TURKISH JOURNAL OF WATER SCIENCES AND MANAGEMENT
Authors

Kübra Özdemir Çallı

Yasemin Taşcı

Mustafa Uzun

Yakup Karaaslan

Publication Date January 13, 2022
Published in Issue Year 2022 Volume: 6 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Özdemir Çallı, K., Taşcı, Y., Uzun, M., Karaaslan, Y. (2022). Predicting Climate-induced Groundwater Depletion: A Case Study in Şuhut Alluvial Aquifer. Turkish Journal of Water Science and Management, 6(1), 145-176. https://doi.org/10.31807/tjwsm.947685
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