Abstract
Ukrayna-Rusya savaşı, uluslararası ticareti ve küresel tedarik zincirlerini tehdit etmeye devam ediyor. Bu makale, Rusya-Ukrayna savaşının Türkiye'nin ihracat ve ithalatı üzerindeki etkilerini analiz etmektedir. Bu amaçla, çatışmadan en çok etkilenen sektörleri ortaya çıkarmak için 2016 ve 2020 yılları arasındaki Türkiye-Rusya ve Türkiye-Ukrayna 4 haneli Uyumlaştırılmış Tarife Cetveli (HTS) ticaret rakamları analiz edilmiştir. Bulgularımız, Türkiye'nin hem Rusya'ya hem de Ukrayna'ya yaptığı tarımsal ihracatın çatışmadan olumsuz etkileneceğini göstermekte olup narenciye ve domates ihracatının daralması muhtemeldir. Ticaretteki sıkıntıyı hissedecek diğer Türk ihracatçıları ise motorlu kara taşıtları, petrol yağları ve makine üreticileridir. Yaptırımlar Rus tüccarların iş yapma kabiliyetine zarar verirse, Türkiye Rusya'dan çeşitli demir-çelik ürünleri, dövme alüminyum, buğday, kömür, doğal gaz, petrol yağları ve amonyak ithal etmekte zorlanabilir. Ukrayna'dan demir, buğday, ayçiçeği, mısır veya mısır yarı mamulleri, çeşitli demir-çelik ürünleri, ferro alaşımları ithal edilmesi, Türkiye için bu malların ithalatında Ukrayna'nın çift haneli önemli bir paya sahip olması nedeniyle Türkiye için sorun yaratabilir. Gıda ve enerji fiyatlarındaki küresel artışın Türkiye'nin bütçe açığını daha da kötüleştirebileceği ve hâlihazırda yükselen yurt içi enflasyonu bozabileceği ve bunun da orta vadede Türk tüccarlarını etkileyebileceği öngörülmektedir.
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Abstract
The Ukraine-Russia war continues to threat international trade and global supply chains. This article analyses the impacts of Russia-Ukraine war on Turkey’s exports and imports. For this purpose, we analyzed 4-digit Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) Turkey-Russia and Turkey-Ukraine trade figures between 2016 and 2020 to reveal the prospective most affected sectors from the conflict. Our findings show that Turkey’s agricultural exports both to Russia and Ukraine will be affected negatively by the conflict. The exports of citrus fruits and tomatoes are expected to shrink. Other Turkish exporters which will feel the squeeze are the producers of motor vehicles, petroleum oils and machinery. Turkey may get into trouble in importing various iron and steel products, wrought aluminum, wheat, coal, natural gas, petroleum oils and ammonia from Russia if the sanctions would harm the ability of Russian traders doing business. Importing semi-finished products of iron, wheat, sunflower, maize or corn, various iron and steel products, ferro alloys from Ukraine may be problematic for Turkey as Ukraine takes a significant double-digit share in Turkey’s imports of these goods. It appears global rise in food and energy prices could exacerbate Turkey’s budget deficit and deteriorate already rising domestic inflation, which may in turn hit Turkish traders in the medium term.
References
- Abdelaaziz A., Azaroual F., Oumayma B., and Uri D. (2022). The Economic Implications of the War in Ukraine for Africa and Morocco. Policy Center for the New South, Policy Brief 11/22.
- Anstey, C. (2022). Three Ways the Ukraine Crisis May Rattle the World Economy. Bloomberg.com. Retrieved from https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2022-02-25/globaleconomy-latest-three-ways-ukraine-crisis-hurts-world-economy [Accessed on March 13, 2022]
- Arslan S., Arisoy H., and Karakayaci Z. (2022). The Situation of Regional Concentration of Tomato Foreign Trade in Turkey. Turkish Journal of Agriculture - Food Science and Technology, Vol. 10 No. 2.
- Astrov V., Grieveson R. Kochnev A., Landesmann M., and Pindyuk O. (2022). Possible Russian Invasion of Ukraine, Scenarios for Sanctions, and Likely Economic Impact on Russia, Ukraine, and the EU. The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, Policy Notes and Reports 55.
- Crisis desk and IRU Initiative for Turkish Trucks from TOBB. TOBB’s Webpage. Retrieved from https://www.tobb.org.tr/Sayfalar/Eng/Detay.php?rid=27378&lst=MansetListesi [Accessed on March 9, 2022]
- Dabrowski, M., Domínguez-Jiménez, M. and Zachmann G. (2020). Six Years after Ukraine’s Euromaidan: Reforms and Challenges Ahead. Bruegel policy contribution. Retrieved from https://www.bruegel.org/2020/06/six-years-after-ukraines-euromaidan-reforms-and-challenges-ahead/ [Accessed on March 1, 2022]
- Energy Market Regulation Authority of Turkey (EMRA) (2022). Natural Gas Market Sectoral Report. Retrieved from: https://www.epdk.gov.tr/Detay/Icerik/3-0-94/dogal-gazyillik-sektor-raporu [Accessed on March 10, 2022]
- Glauber J., and Laborde D. (2022). How will Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Affect Global Food Security? International Food Policy Research Institute, IFPRI Blog.
- ITC. (2022). International Trade Center, Trade Statistics. Retrieved from: http://www.itcturkiye.com/tr. [Accessed March 15, 2022]
- Liadze I., Macchiarelli C., Mortimer-Lee P., and Juanino, P.S. (2022). The Economic Cost of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict. National Institute of Economic and Social Research, Policy Paper no. 32.
- Oxford Analytica (2022). War in Ukraine will Increase Turkey’s Isolation. Expert Briefings.
- Oxford Analytica (2022). Ukraine Invasion Threatens Oil Trade Amid Volatility. Expert Briefings.
- Oxford Analytica (2022). Russian Invasion of Ukraine will Hurt Turkish Economy. Expert Briefings.
- Papanikos G.T. (2022). Europe, Ukraine and Russia: What is Really at Stake? Athens Institute for Education and Research (ATINER), Working Paper, No 04/2022.
- Pierce J. (2022). Russian Ukrainian Conflict Hurts on Turkish Garment Industry. Habertusba. Retrieved from https://www.habertusba.com/the-russian-ukrainian-conflict-hurts-on-turkish-garment-industry/ [Accessed on March 13, 2022]
- Schiffling, S., and Kanellos, N. (2022) Five Essential Commodities that will be Hit by War in Ukraine. The Conversation. Brief.
- Trademap (2022). Trade Statistics. Retrieved From: https://www.trademap.org/Index.aspx. [Accessed February 27, 2022]
- TUIK. (2021). Turkish Statistical Institute Foreign Trade Statistics. Retrieved From: https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Kategori/GetKategori?p= Foreign-Trade-104. [Accessed March 5, 2022]
- USDA. (n.d.). Grain: World Markets and Trade. USDA Foreign Agricultural Service. Retrieved from https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/grain-world-markets-and-trade [Accessed on February 25, 2022]
- Ukraine Crisis Threatening Steel Industry: Businesswoman. (2022). Hurriyet Daily News, Retrieved from https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/ukraine-crisis-threatening-steel-industry-businesswoman-171989 [Accessed on March 8, 2022]
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Details
| Primary Language | English |
|---|---|
| Journal Section | Research Articles |
| Authors | |
| Publication Date | July 31, 2022 |
| Submission Date | March 22, 2022 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2022 Volume: 22 Issue: 2 |
